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Advances on the estimation of measurement uncertainty for the national GHG emission factors database of Costa Rica
by Mr. Gabriel Molina-Castro, Dr. Bryan Calderón-Jiménez, Mr. Jorge Montero-Arguedas, Mrs./Ms. Marian Rojas-Acosta, Mrs./Ms. Ana Rita Chacón-Araya


A new environmental challenge for Costa Rica on its path to the fight against climate change involves the precise and reliable quantification of its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission data. With the publication of the latest version of ISO 14064-1, the National Program for Carbon Neutrality of Costa Rica included measurement uncertainty as a mandatory requirement for the reporting of GHG inventories. However, technical gaps remain for an optimal implementation of this requirement, including a lack of information regarding uncertainties in its official emission factors database. In recent years, significant technical advances have been made to provide uncertainty information to this database, which is crucial to national interests in moving towards increasingly accurate quantification of their GHG emissions. These advances have been achieved through national studies that include fitting symmetric and asymmetric distributions to estimate uncertainties associated with emission factors for fuels and livestock (including enteric fermentation and manure management), strategic alliances between institutions to achieve the uncertainty estimation for the domestic electricity consumption emission factor, and Monte Carlo simulation processes to estimate uncertainties in emission factors for non-energy use of lubricants, wastewater treatment, and solid waste treatment and disposal. Although the obtained results showed to be consistent with studies carried out in other latitudes, many challenges remain on the horizon. Among them are the gaps in the information required to complete the uncertainties in national emission factors for agricultural processes and land use, the lack of studies in countries with economic, geographic, demographic, and social characteristics similar to Costa Rica that allow a better comparison of results, and the lack of national studies to improve the accuracy in the quantification of some factors mentioned above which come from generalized recommendations found in the literature. Thus, the scientific population of the world is invited to develop more and better studies focused on the uncertainty quantification of local emission factors, which will allow their economies to advance towards a higher accuracy in the quantification of their GHG emissions and continue the global fight against climate change.


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Topic : Theme 2: Accuracy requirements for atmospheric composition measurements across economic sectors, and temporal and spatial scales.
Reference : T2-A16

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